#WAO2010 - The Washington Apartment Outlook 2010

This is the tweet transcript from this year's Washington Apartment Outlook, on September 22, 2010, presented by the Washington Multi-Family Housing Association.  For easier reading, scroll to the bottom of the page and then read up.

1.    
    
   @ActiveBuilding No problem! I agree. Big thanks to @duprescott for the incredible info, and to @wmfhapts for putting on a great conference
2.   
   @emjaneundy we should have agreed on a hashtag for the WAO today. U used #WAO and I used #WAO2010 
3.   
   @JD_Paragon great conference today! I love #wao2010 but my brain is totally fried now :) 
4.   
   lovin my MIFI today - battery lasted all day, and brought you these tweets since I left my phone in the car! #WAO2010
5.   
   I am the only person who is okay with WA state staying in control of the liquor sales. You have to afford fire depts somehow people #WAO2010 
6.    
   Initiative 1098 - income tax for WA State on people who make 250K a year /couples who make 400K #WAO2010 this crowd doesn't like it 
7.   
   What caused a lot of the economy problems? Matthew Gardner: NINJA Loan - "No income, No job/ assets" I LOVE THIS! #WAO2010 
8.   
   Will repatriating outsourced jobs require income drop & rent drop? #WAO2010 - Absolutely. Consider rents in relation to what people can pay 
9.   
   will we be able to go back to those condo convert projects? in 5 years? #WAO2010 very possibly, but not right away. expect more flips 
10.   
    Failed condos do add to the inventory of apts, and that trend is not over yet. Be prepped for the flipped projects #WAO2010 
11.   
    what's the min # of units that institutional buyers are looking for? #WAO2010 - Generally, 100 units and up and depending on prime locations 
12.   
    How likely is a deflationary scenario and what will it do to jobs #WAO2010 - 20% chance, and we are seeing signs, but it's not likely
13.   
    W/ pos NOI forecast, will there b movement 2 HomeOwn? #WAO2010 should hold steady to the last few years- will drop over time b/c of boomers 
14.   
    if more people are moving here and home ownership is going down, why only 2k new units? #WAO2010 - low dev financing and equity. 
15.   
    Question and Answer time at #WAO2010 
16.   
    Home ownership is a bargain now compared to renting, so if they aren't scared, it's a red flag on our field for rental rates #WAO2010 
17.   
    "Think outside the sheet rock." LOVE THAT! #WAO2010 
18.   
    apt rental rates will go up b/c of a slow down in production of new product - 6% per year on the rate increase #WAO2010 
19.   
    fill them with Gen Y and we get rental candy!!! #WAO2010 
20.   
    350K new jobs in next 10 years and 308K jobs left open by retiring boomers. We need to fill those jobs #WAO2010 
21.   
    Gen Y is entering the job market and the boomers are moving out. Most of them will leave the market in the next 10 years #WAO2010 
22.   
    it takes 8 jobs to create demand for one new apartment #WAO2010 
23.   
    "The Geezer Effect" the eccentric older person. - can I be a young geezer? #WAO2010 
24.   
    if you're going to do a low cap rate investment, now is the time, says Mike Scott #WAO2010 
25.   
    Only IF cap rates and interest rates don't rise. If they bump up, you're looking at a 20% gain. #WAO2010 
26.   
    forecast - prices will climb almost 40% (8% a year) between now and 2015 #WAO2010 
27.   
    risk on low cap rate buying - if interest rates rise, it's going to hurt... a lot. #WAO2010 
28.   
    How could rents only go up 35% and prices up 87%? Cap rates dropped massively, but are climbing. 6.5% on avg this year #WAO2010 
29.   
    Prices are down 15% - buyers see opportunity in the market #WAO2010 price per unit is at about 108K currently 
30.   
    Sept number for 2010 is higher than all of last year's apt sales volume total #WAO2010 
31.   
    Mortgage rates and Cap rates are the intertwined couple #WAO2010 - apt sales volume went high and has fallen due to credit crunch #WAO2010 
32.   
    "We aren't looking at a surge, but we are looking a a shift" #WAO2010 
33.   
    As soon as the news stops scaring the renting public from buying, we run the risk of a serious drop in rental prices #WAO2010 
34.   
    You can't forget the comparability of that condo market. Rents are now higher than mortgage payments #WAO2010 
35.   
    over the next 5 years based on per capita income growth, we could be looking at a 30% rent growth, but will it? maybe not #WAO2010
36.   
    "YOU CAN'T VIEW THE APT MARKET IN A vacuum!" Thank you mike... now, did anyone hear it? #WAO2010 
37.   
    Micro neighborhoods are popping up everywhere - TAP THAT LOCALISM!!! people are outside their space and in the neighborhood #WAO2010 
38.   
    Gen Y holds a lot of their STUFF in their hands. #WAO2010 A smaller unit can deliver a 1br rent at a lower cost /higher NOI #WAO2010 
39.   
    "Space needs have shrunk" - Maybe for you Mike. I'm a "Stuff person" :) #WAO2010 
40.   
    does a 1br need to still be at the 750 sq ft standard? Bigger or smaller? what do u think? #WAO2010 
41.   
    The iHome- the world is changing and we are not adapting very quickly. We need to learn to think differently about things. #WAO2010 
42.   
    New apts - 4k in lease up this year, 2k in lease up next year, 3k in 2012, 4.5k in 2013, 5.3 in 2014 and almost 6k in 2015 #WAO2010 
43.   
    12000 NEW Units in the PNW by 2015 +94 more dev sites (another 12000 units) that are currently on hold #WAO2010 
44.   
    "When devs say there isn't any money, it's b/c they just don't like the terms" We're missing equity & creating a"big frickin wall" #WAO2010 
45.   
    where we are now w/ our rent structure is not high enough to get stuff moving, but it's prjected to be better soon. (1/2) #WAO2010
46.   
    fewer props are even offering concessions - spring was 60% and now it's about 35% WOOOOHOOOO! #wao2010 
47.   
    Rents climbed 1% in the last 6 months, but it's at least climbing #WAO2010 Bottom line rev is growing even faster w/ less concessions 
48.   
    5% vacancy rate is normal market. That's where we're at. b/c people aren't buying vacancies fell faster #WAO2010 
49.   
    What's the GAGA? the surprise, the unexpected - The awesome quotient #WAO2010 
50.   
    "The Good, The Bad, And the GAGA!" all three characters in the apt market today #WAo2010 
51.   
    Information from Mikes presentation comes from their Fall Survey work, data as recent as YESTERDAY #WAO2010 
52.   
    Mike Scott of Dupre and Scott is taking the stage at the #WAO2010 - He always has FANTASTIC info :) 
53.   
    "We've thrown a trillion dollars at it, that's 12 zeros for you non-economists and it's not working" Matthew Gardner on job growth #WAO2010 
54.   
    2/2 apartments at as hedge against inflation, increasing occupancy rates by 215K in 64 markets in first half of year, #WAO2010 
55.   
    The outlook is good! demographic shifts from boomers, people not buying as much, shifts to coastal markets w/ urban centers 1/2 #WAO2010 
56.   
    some argue that home ownership rates could drop to as low as 60% #WAO2010 
57.   
    people who might have bought a house are now more likely to stay renters due to the uncertainty of the mortgage market #WAO2010 
58.   
    mortgage rates are going to start to go up which will add renter households #WAO2010 
59.   
    weakness in the $$$ is attracting foreign buyers #WAO2010 Investors are showing more confidence in forecasts and underwriting 
60.   
    Gen Y anticipated to grow by 17% between 200 and 2025 - one heck of an echo boom! High propensity to rent #WAO2010 
61.   
    Unemployment in the 24-30 age demo has been killer, but as they return to work, they return to our rentals #WAO2010 
62.   
    worst of erosion in occupancies is over - 65k new units in 2010, and vacancy should decrease by 30bps this year #WAO2010 
63.   
    We will see additional 737 airliner production, the new air force tanker. Microsoft layoffs weren't too bad for US. #WAO2010 
64.   
    5b's - BOEING, BYTES, (big growth in enterprise servers!), BIOTECH, BATTERY tech, benefactors (Philanthropy is awesome) #WAO2010 
65.   
    Our unemployment rate is still below the national average - minimal gains are coming #WAO2010 
66.   
    interesting - Education and health services are holding steady #WAO2010 
67.   
    where are the new local jobs coming from? professional services and information tech. leisure and hospitality as well #WAO2010 
68.   
    Moving to the Puget Sound economy - job losses are slowing, there is very small growth, but growth. "At least we r not Detroit" #WAO2010 
69.   
    "We are suffering from recession fatigue" We're tired of being in recession so the purse strings are opening out of frustration #WAO2010 
70.   
    job growth is NOT as rapid as we'd like or as we had predicted, but Matthew Gardner says that it will be turning around soon #wao2010 
71.   
    94% of commerce in this country is SMALL BUSINESS #wao2010
72.   
    Big Banks are fibbers. They're not lending to anyone. Community banks, where small biz loans come from, are really hurting #WAO2010 
73.   
    is it a paradigm shift in america to consume less? or is it just temporary? if we've shifted, expect slow recovery growth #WAO2010 
74.   
    consumer slashed their debt levels by nearly 1700 dollars per household in 2009 - we r saving more, consuming less #WAO2010 
75.   
    over 10 years, this country created 10mil jobs. then we spent money on things we couldn't afford. recovery will be painfully slow #WAO2010 
76.   
    V shaped recession, Ushaped recession, and what is this one? it's a square root shaped recession on the graphs #WAO2010 
77.   
    Unemployment will likely push upward this year as workers start looking for work again -50 mil UE and job changers are moving #WAO2010 
78.   
    "Productivity is rising" BECAUSE WE"RE WORKING PEOPLE TO DEATH. Companies are hoarding cash and it's hurting the economy #WAO2010 
79.   
    Federal reserve is likely to start buying treasury again - we're a bit worried about deflation #WAO2010 
80.   
    Job growth - we are weighed down by public sector layoffs - There's likely to be additional stimulus, but it's not gar. effective #WAO2010 
81.   
    Anemic growth going forward, but growth all the same. We're out of the recession but it won't feel like it #WAO2010 
82.   
    US Economic out look- "Officially" we're out of the recession, but it doesn't mean instant growth. Only a 2% growth on GDB #WAO2010 
83.   
    Welcome to Matthew Gardner at the #WAO2010! 
84.   
    wanna do something to improve the industry? register to vote and check out www. apartmentvotescount.org #WAO2010 
85.   
    @naahq - Greg Brown is awesome on the PAC recap! Thanks for sending him out to our #WAO2010 
86.   
    want to see the trends of the electorate opinions? www. pollster.com #WAO2010 
87.   
    "the recession is over" okay. Sure. and what about the unemployment rates? #wao2010 
88.   
    @naahq does great job with lots of damaging proposals - a lot that I didn't even know about. You owe these people some gratitude #WAO2010
89.   
    Source of income protection fails in NY state, and in Miami- Dade county #WAO2010 
90.   
    OK just tried to pass a law that requires disclosure of any unit that METH was produced in - Defeated, yea! #WAO2010 
91.   
    should it be an issue for owners to police whether or not their residents are legal? #WAO2010 
92.   
    Immigration is a state and local effect as well - not just AZ but TX, NE, SC, and PA - Key issue in 20 governor races this year #wao2010 
93.   
    @NAAHQ has a website for bedbug resources -naahq.org/bedbugs Seminars, education, etc. 
94.   
    State and Local issues - BED BUGS BABY! NY passed a state law on bed bug disclosure #WAO2010 
95.   
    GSE reform - "There's a lot of people sharpening their knives over fannie mae and freddy mac" A lot of people want to not back them #WAO2010 
96.   
    Energy efficiency proposal has been stalled by the union people over the wages that will be paid, so no movement there #WAO 2010 
97.   
    Unless extended by congress this month the national flood insurance program will shut down for the foreseeable future #WAO2010 
98.   
    Section 8 changes are stalled, so those changes will not happen this year #WAO2010 
99.   
    carried interest is being watched at the federal level - HUGE increase is proposed, but we have so far been able to stall it #WAO2010 
100.   
     "Rules over substance." can we just get something done? I mean really? This lame duck stuff is obnoxious; be productive #WAO2010 
101.   
     Bush tax cuts are a big issue - reps want to extend them perm. Dems want to extend for those who make less than 250K a year #WAO2010 
102.   
     congress is pretty much failing to work together b/c of the upcoming elections. It's a lot of mud slinging and messages #WAO2010 
103.   
     Greg Brown from @naahq takes the stage at the #WAO2010 - can't wait to hear what he has to say a/b recent developments 
104.   
     Give some love to you PAC or the @Wmfha GAC and help our gov affairs people keep fighting for your interests! #WAO2010 
105.   
     I love listening to Joe Puckett speak - he's eloquent and erudite and just as captivating as can be on stage #WAO2010 
106.   
     possible changes coming to the WA Landlord tenant act could be coming, so tune in to your friends @wmfhapts for info! #WAO2010 
107.   
     WA bill passage that prohibits mandatory crime free inspection programs - all programs are now optional and voluntary #WAO2010 
108.   
     @Wmfhapts is asking the building co counsel to reconsider this ruling, and look for a more reasonable solution #WAO2010 
109.   
     If you don't know, you should know that in WA State by July 1st you are REQUIRED to install a carbon monoxide detector in Every UNIT #WAO2010 
110.   
     "being an advocate for owners doesn't make you Anti- Tenant" - @Wmfhapts lobbyist speaks very well! #WAO2010 
111.   
     there will be an incoming slew of tweets regarding the #WAO - if you don't want to see them, then unfollow me for now :) 
112.   
     It's time for this year's Washington Apartment Outlook #WAO2010 with @wmfhapts